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Wednesday, 20 August 2014

Blackberry...yes, again!


Why? Because it’s worth shouting about, again, that’s why.

I’ve pumped up my stake in Blackberry and am looking forward to September’s business battle between the iPhone 6 and Blackberry’s Passport. John Chen is doing a great job and must be relishing this battle. There’s a whole plethora of analysts’ forecasts, financial data out there, almost willing Blackberry to do well, so I wont dwell on that.

I'm back! The good old Blackberry keyboard


But I have picked out some choice bloggers’ recommendations. I love ‘em!


Seeking Alpha says, in a heading of Final Thoughts:
Finally, Valuewalk, in an article with this very long headline - 'Blackberry has reason to cheer as most secure Android phone got rooted in just five minutes, proving the dominance of the Canadian firm as a security enterprise' - has this to say':



However, seekingalpha.com are hedging their bets, and have a  naysayer in their ranks. Kofi Bofah (Onyx Investments: avoid THEM!) tells us that the Passport has ‘no killer app’. Excuse me? I’d have thought that the Passport will itself be a killer app – you can walk around with about four eminently viewable films in your pocket. OK, so it’s a large pocket, but still.

Also Kofi, take a look at this – maybe apps are no longer king.

Kofi also reckons that after a consortium of institutional investors began to purchase $1.25 billion in Blackberry convertible debentures last year, the resulting ownership stake dilution, upon reaching $10, will be 23.7%, so 'conservative investors should avoid buying into Blackberry stock'. Blither blather. So what? they invested, and they're just getting their money back in a different way. Anyway, the stock's risen double that in a year.

So! I'm more than happy to stick with John Chen. However, I will nick Kofi's nicely worded disclaimer: Please do your own due diligence prior to investing. This article contains my opinions only, which should not form the basis of an investment decision.

Friday, 2 May 2014

Proven Investment Strategy - and no numbers involved

I’ve gone big, long, bullish – whatever you want to call it – on Blackberry. Big. And I don’t know their numbers – although nobody could have missed that they have been catastrophic in the recent past.

What I am increasingly basing my strategy on is the guy at the top – and in Blackberry’s case this is John Chen. More about him in a minute. If you have someone really top notch at the helm, why bother with the numbers? If the guy’s good he or she will get them right – and get them accurate. Like who, I hear you ask? Fair question. How about the genius Steve Jobs transforming Apple, twice? Or, closer to home and more up to date, look at the record of Harriet Green, CEO of the Thomas Cook Group who’s taken their share price from 20p – yes, 20p! – to 175p in seventeenmonths. Harriet is one smart lady – she told Thomas Cook they needed her. Did they ever!

This strategy has made me money several times and it's going to work for me again, with Blackberry. The way I’m hooked on them the old corruption of Crackberry could well apply to me.

Back to John Chen. What a record the guy has. You can read about it here and here. He’s a business genius.

More to the point, a staggering 56% of Blackberry’s shares are still owned by big institutions and in case you need reminding, big institutions hate to lose money. They brought Chen in on a hellova package. But he’ll pay them back.

And don’t take too much notice of Chen’s statement that there’s a 50-50 chance that the company might go under. C’mon John, we all know that that’s corporate speak for addressing your own folks. Subtext: take my reforms and cutbacks – or we (that means you) are going under. Much like Stephen Elop’s famous burningplatform speech to Nokia (by the way Nokia is my second biggest punt (I re-bought them) – more of that in another post). Apart from that, Fairfax Financial tried to buy Blackberry when it was on its knees and when they didn’t get it they piled in for more – and, importantly, they’re still there.

For the sake of fairness - as they say - let me put another side of this story. From seekingalpha.com (seeking help more like!), who said, a few days ago, ‘That being said, BlackBerryshareholders should immediately liquidate their positions, in order to avoid staggering losses over the next year'. Yeah, right!

On some of my other holdings: I’m well out of Anite and Ironveld now (lost a bit on both unfortunately) but, having laid my current Blackberry cards on the table you’ll be able to judge me, before the end of 2014 – probably well before.


Oh, and thanks to the 10,000 or so of you who take a regular peak at my blog (I must be doing something right – because I haven’t posted for a while!). Your loyalty is appreciated.

I can verify all I have said about my personal portfolio in this post but I am not offering this as an inducement to buy the stated stocks and shares. I am not a professional advisor. The views and opinions in this post are my own and should not constitute advice to purchase the stocks and shares quoted.

Monday, 23 September 2013

The Estate of my great uncle, James Osenton the gold miner: the story continues...


Arawatabaru, Barima River, Guyana


It seems the entire estate of my great uncle, James Osenton, gold miner extraordinaire, comprised a single share certificate. After Treasury Solicitors' costs the final amount from the government office is...wait for it...a couple of thousand pounds! To be divided among his descendants. Me and my cousins have decided to put the money towards some kind of memorial to James Osenton - he deserved that at least!



Just to take the story further: the dear old BBC, in the form of their Heir Hunters programme, have said that they would like to interview me, which I'm more that happy to do - I might then find out more about James Osenton. In fact I will do more than that: I intend to go out to Guyana, go up the Barima River and try and find out a bit more about my great uncle's gold mine. First hand!

Settlements on the Barima River, Guyana



A gold nugget, found in the Barima River