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Friday, 2 May 2014

Proven Investment Strategy - and no numbers involved

I’ve gone big, long, bullish – whatever you want to call it – on Blackberry. Big. And I don’t know their numbers – although nobody could have missed that they have been catastrophic in the recent past.

What I am increasingly basing my strategy on is the guy at the top – and in Blackberry’s case this is John Chen. More about him in a minute. If you have someone really top notch at the helm, why bother with the numbers? If the guy’s good he or she will get them right – and get them accurate. Like who, I hear you ask? Fair question. How about the genius Steve Jobs transforming Apple, twice? Or, closer to home and more up to date, look at the record of Harriet Green, CEO of the Thomas Cook Group who’s taken their share price from 20p – yes, 20p! – to 175p in seventeenmonths. Harriet is one smart lady – she told Thomas Cook they needed her. Did they ever!

This strategy has made me money several times and it's going to work for me again, with Blackberry. The way I’m hooked on them the old corruption of Crackberry could well apply to me.

Back to John Chen. What a record the guy has. You can read about it here and here. He’s a business genius.

More to the point, a staggering 56% of Blackberry’s shares are still owned by big institutions and in case you need reminding, big institutions hate to lose money. They brought Chen in on a hellova package. But he’ll pay them back.

And don’t take too much notice of Chen’s statement that there’s a 50-50 chance that the company might go under. C’mon John, we all know that that’s corporate speak for addressing your own folks. Subtext: take my reforms and cutbacks – or we (that means you) are going under. Much like Stephen Elop’s famous burningplatform speech to Nokia (by the way Nokia is my second biggest punt (I re-bought them) – more of that in another post). Apart from that, Fairfax Financial tried to buy Blackberry when it was on its knees and when they didn’t get it they piled in for more – and, importantly, they’re still there.

For the sake of fairness - as they say - let me put another side of this story. From seekingalpha.com (seeking help more like!), who said, a few days ago, ‘That being said, BlackBerryshareholders should immediately liquidate their positions, in order to avoid staggering losses over the next year'. Yeah, right!

On some of my other holdings: I’m well out of Anite and Ironveld now (lost a bit on both unfortunately) but, having laid my current Blackberry cards on the table you’ll be able to judge me, before the end of 2014 – probably well before.


Oh, and thanks to the 10,000 or so of you who take a regular peak at my blog (I must be doing something right – because I haven’t posted for a while!). Your loyalty is appreciated.

I can verify all I have said about my personal portfolio in this post but I am not offering this as an inducement to buy the stated stocks and shares. I am not a professional advisor. The views and opinions in this post are my own and should not constitute advice to purchase the stocks and shares quoted.

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